EBRD: Greek economy to grow 2.3% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025

Greece’s GDP is expected to grow from 2.0% in 2023 to 2.3% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said in a report on Wednesday.

Both private and public consumption grew by close to 2%, gross fixed capital formation was up by 4%, and exports of goods and services rose by 3.7%, exceeding import growth (2.1%).

Tourist arrivals and receipts increased substantially in 2023, exceeding pre-Covid-19 levels. Confidence indicators also started moving in the right direction, while easing energy prices helped disinflation in 2023. Headline annual inflation was 3.5% in the last quarter of 2023, having reached double-digit rates in 2022.

In addition, Greece returned to investment grade credit rating during 2023 for three out of the four main ratings agencies.

The budget recorded a primary surplus of 1.9% of GDP in 2023 and the fiscal outlook is assessed to be in line with the provisions of the existing Stability and Growth Pact, reactivated as of 2024. Economic confidence is steadily improving, with the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on an upward trend in the first quarter of 2024 (56.9 in March 2024, the highest level since February 2022), and the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) reaching a 7-month high (108.4 in March 2024).

Progress has been recorded in implementing investments financed by the Recovery and Resilience Facility, limiting downside risks from global and regional turbulence as well as natural disasters due to climate change, the EBRD reported.