Goldman Sachs Revises EBITDA Estimates for Greek Refineries

In an analysis of the European sector, Goldman Sachs has revised its 3-year estimates for the adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) for the Greek oil refineries, Motor Oil and Helleniq Energy.

However, the U.S.-based investment banking company lowered its projections for the net profits of the Greek refineries due to the recent imposition of a landfall tax on profits by the Greek government.

Goldman Sachs expects an average increase of +8%/+2%/+1% in adjusted EBITDA for 2024/25/26, ahead of second-quarter results (incorporating their latest expectations for the refining margin for Motor Oil and Helleniq Energy).

Estimates for earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 have been revised downwards by approximately 30%, due to the inclusion of the extraordinary tax.

The company maintains a neutral recommendation for Motor Oil stocks, with a target price of 30 euros, due to the stock’s outperformance during 2022-23. The analysis explains the performance was backed by a strong macroeconomic refining environment and Motor Oil’s expansion into renewable energy.

Currently, the company is targeting approximately 2 GW of renewable energy capacity and 250 million euros in EBITDA from the renewable energy sector by 2030.

Regarding Helleniq Energy, Goldman Sachs recommends selling, with a target price of 7.70 euros. According to their estimates for 2025, Helleniq Energy is trading below the average free cash flow (FCF) yield of the competitors and at approximately 6x EV/EBITDA, which is higher than Motor Oil’s multiple for 2025.